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Jun 19, 2023

Charting fuel choices as the shipping industry sails toward net zero

Shipping companies— encouraged by regulation, customer demand, investor

Shipping companies—encouraged by regulation, customer demand, investor pressure, and internal goals—are searching for ways to decarbonize their fleets. Greener-fuel possibilities abound in the maritime world, and the industry is in a period of experimentation and exploration to understand the implications of adopting such fuels. To find out how industry leaders are thinking about future fuels, the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation, the Global Maritime Forum, and the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping recently conducted a survey (with analytical support provided by McKinsey) of shipping companies. Collectively, these companies own and operate fleets—including container ships, tankers, dry bulkers, gas carriers, car carriers, cruise ships, tugs, and offshore vessels—comprising roughly 20 percent of the world's total capacity.

The snapshot that emerges from respondents’ answers portrays a world with a wide range of fuels in the mix through 2050. Many respondents expect their fleets to run on multiple types of fuel well into the future. This suggests that shipping's route to decarbonization could be complex. But companies that are currently plotting investment strategies might consider viewing this inchoate moment as an opportunity for bold decision making. Multiple fuel pathways continue to be viable, and advantages for first movers are there for the taking.

Among findings from the survey:

The full report, The shipping industry's fuel choices on the path to net zero, presents further survey results along with potential takeaways for various stakeholders.

In the world suggested by these survey answers, the role of first movers—and of entities that can galvanize entire value chains, from fuel production to a vessel's consumption—will be vital. Organizations that lead the way might provoke and shape others’ actions, catalyzing investments that create their own momentum and, over time, perhaps result in the inevitability of a specific fuel scenario.

Arjen Kersing is a senior knowledge expert in McKinsey's Amsterdam office, and Matt Stone is a partner in the London office.